Die Ursachen der sinkenden Ölpreise?

Werbung

 

„Rohölpreisanstieg auf 200 US Dollar erwartet“, so oder so ähnlich lauteten noch vor wenigen Tagen die Schlagzeilen in den Medien. Die eindeutige Mehrheit der Fachleute verbreiteten Weltuntergangsstimmungen, was die Richtung der Rohölpreisnotierungen in den nächsten Monaten anbelangte. Plötzlich hat sich jedoch der Wind kräftig gedreht, die Notierungen an den internationalen Rohölbörsen gegen schon seit über 10 Tagen spürbar zurück. Kostete das Barrel Öl am 4.07.2008 noch 144,81 US $, so war am vergangenen Freitag das Barrel schon für 126,13 US $ zu erstehen. Was sind die Ursachen für diesen Trendwechsel beim Rohölpreis?

 

Eine Überhitzung des Marktes gibt Rainer Wiek vom Erdölinformationsdienst (EID) als Hauptursache für die galoppierenden Preiserhöhungen der letzten Monate beim Rohöl an. Öl wurde plötzlich zum Spekulationsobjekt. Nun, da die Weltkonjunktur sich wieder abzuschwächen beginnt, folgen auch die (Rohstoff-)Börsennotierungen der Konjunktur. Die Nachfrage nach Kraftstoffen lässt nach. Rohöl wird  derzeit  nicht als knapper Rohstoff bewertet, die Läger sind gut gefüllt. Hinzu kommt, dass Saudi Arabien seine Zusagen auf dem letzten Ölgipfel in Riad erfüllt hat, die Ölfördermengen zu steigern.

 

Analysten der Deutschen Bank rechnen derzeit mit einem Rohölpreis, der sich in den kommenden 12 Monaten um 120 US-Dollar bewegen wird. Ob sich die Kraftstoffpreise an den Tankstellen in gleichem Maße an den fallenden Rohölpreis angleichen werden, ist derzeit noch nicht mit Bestimmtheit zu sagen. Die Höhe der Kraftstoffpreise bestimmt bekanntlich nicht nur der Rohölpreis , sondern auch das Wertverhältnis des Dollars zum Euro. Meist ging in der Vergangenheit ein Erstarken des Dollars mit fallenden Rohölpreisen einher. Da die internationalen Öllieferungen in US-Dollar abgerechnet werden, führt eine stärker bewertete US-amerikanische Währung zu höheren Eintauschpreisen und somit zu höheren Ölrechnungen.  

 

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